Quote of the day

“I find economics increasingly satisfactory, and I think I am rather good at it.”– John Maynard Keynes

Sunday 5 May 2024

Some charts to give food for thought

 If you can interpret these they provide good material for conclusions (monetary policy, recession etc.). The first shows Fed hiking cycles and recessions - most, but not all, were followed by recessions:



The next is how long after the first hike the recession began; it is 25 months since the Fed's first hike:


The average is 26 months. The data won't be in before your exam but you can talk about it.

Next is the infamous yield curve:


The grey bars are recessions. Look at the inversion points and note that the inversion declined (usually) before recession hit.

Finally, some job numbers. This is the US Non-farm payroll, THE most closely watched employment number; that last release (Friday) was a "miss" - 240,000 jobs forecast, actual was 170,000:


Again, look at the grey bars, where the jobs numbers were before and where they appear to be headed now. It will prove particularly interesting if inflation turns out to be sticky!


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