Quote of the day

“I find economics increasingly satisfactory, and I think I am rather good at it.”– John Maynard Keynes

Wednesday, 4 December 2024

And from earlier in the year - tackling the benefits trap:

 

Long-term sick should be forced to seek work, says Labour adviser

Alan Milburn called for fundamental reform of a ‘crazy’ benefits system, with getting people back to work the ‘only route’ to faster growth
Alan Milburn said he had identified “a group of people who are willing to work but are not being helped to do so”
Alan Milburn said he had identified “a group of people who are willing to work but are not being helped to do so”
MICHAEL BOWLES/SHUTTERSTOCK

The long-term sick must be required to look for jobs to deal with unsustainable welfare costs and reduce the country’s “toxic” reliance on immigration, a government health adviser has urged.

Alan Milburn, a former health secretary, found that seven out of ten of the economically inactive want to work but few have any help or requirement to do so, and said there should be fundamental reform of a “crazy” system.

In a report he presented alongside Liz Kendall, the work and pension secretary, he said that dealing with record numbers outside the workforce was the “only route to higher levels of economic growth”.

• Watch: Keir Starmer faces questions after Labour MP rebellion

Kendall acknowledged that dealing with long-term sickness was “central” to Sir Keir Starmer’s plan for growth and she promised fundamental overhaul of job centres and back-to-work support to deal with “spiralling” economic inactivity.

While praising Milburn’s “brilliant report”, she stopped short of backing his plan to impose conditions on sickness benefits, saying the priority was better health and employment services. “There have always been conditions to look for work and consequences if you don’t, that won’t change. But I want to see a much greater focus on that upfront help and support,” she said. “I think we’ve had too much of a focus on [clampdowns] rather than the help and support people really need to get into work.”

There are a record 2.8 million people off work because of long-term sickness, part of 9.4 million people neither in employment nor looking for a job, more than one in five of all those of working age.

With the cost of sickness benefits due to reach £64 billion a year by the end of the parliament, up by £30 billion on pre-Covid levels, Kendall said: “Spiralling economic inactivity is bad for individuals, many of whom want to work, it’s bad for employers who are desperate to recruit, and it is bad for our public finances.”

• Alan Milburn’s verdict: How to solve Britain’s “most toxic issue”

But Kendall also dismissed claims by her predecessor, Mel Stride, that labelling everyday worries as mental health problems was pushing up the benefits bill. “Divisive rhetoric about strivers versus scroungers, or claiming people just feel ‘too bluesy’ to work may have grabbed headlines, but it did absolutely nothing to actually get Britain working again,” she said.

Arguing that the “vast majority” of claimants needed help, she said that inactivity was “driven by the fact that we are an older, sicker nation”. Kendall added that “the pandemic had a real impact on the mental health of young people”, promising treatment and support earlier. Kendall concluded that her department had become too focused on overseeing benefits payments, saying: “We need fundamental reform so a department for welfare becomes a genuine Department for Work.”

Liz Kendall envisages leading a “Department for Work”
Liz Kendall envisages leading a “Department for Work”
KARL BLACK/ALAMY

She was speaking in Barnsley, where Milburn has been carrying out a review of how a former “epicentre” of unemployment had seen jobseekers replaced by the long-term sick. He said he was surprised that polling for his review found seven in ten of those classed as unable to work said they would like a job.

Yet although eight out of ten of them were claiming benefits, “only one in ten actually have any contact with employment services that could help them to work. This is what you call a catastrophic systems failure,” Milburn said.

Saying that nationwide these findings could mean an extra 4.5 million potential workers, he said: “The officially unemployed are outnumbered now six to one by people who are economically inactive, who have no engagement with job centres. This is crazy.”

He said the Conservatives had been “relying on toughening benefit rules to deal with what is largely a health-related problem”, calling for “a better balance between sticks and carrots”.

However, he acknowledged a “perversity” in the benefits system that has created incentives to be signed off sick. “If you are officially seeking work, you get help to do so, you have regular contacts and a lot of hassle, but you get lower benefits than if you’re classified as unable to work where you get no hassle and no contacts,” he said.

While stressing that some people would never be able to work, Milburn said that he had identified “a group of people who are willing to work but are not being helped to do so”.

“We’ve got to have a two-way street,” he said. “The state will provide more help, greater personalisation, better integration for example of health and employment support services. But if you’re on state benefits, and economically inactive, you have a duty to engage with those better services.”

Milburn is also advising Wes Streeting, the health and social care secretary, right, arriving for a cabinet meeting with Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary
Milburn is also advising Wes Streeting, the health and social care secretary, right, arriving for a cabinet meeting with Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary
CARL COURT/GETTY IMAGES

Urging Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, to find upfront cash for a “a genuine case of investing to save”, Milburn, who is advising Wes Streeting, the health secretary, also said the NHS should be required to help employment services.

Such a drive to get people back to work would also deal with the “toxic issue” of immigration and prevent a “tide of populism” seen in Europe from sweeping Britain, Milburn argues. “This is a wake-up call for the new Labour government,” he writes in The Times today, urging ministers and bosses “to wean themselves off the easy solution of importing more workers from overseas”.

Getting people back to work instead is “the biggest opportunity both to grow the British economy and deal with the most toxic issue in British politics,” he says.

In sickness and unemployment

 

Benefits beat seeking a job, minister admits

Alison McGovern says the system makes it hard for the long-term sick to find work, with the bill set to rise to £100bn by 2030
Alison McGovern said the Tories made the situation worse when they cut jobseekers’ benefits and increased long-term sick pay
Alison McGovern said the Tories made the situation worse when they cut jobseekers’ benefits and increased long-term sick pay
REX

Benefits claimants have increasingly found that they can get more money being signed off sick than looking for a job and there is “clearly a problem” with incentives in the system, the employment minister has acknowledged.

Alison McGovern said that the current system “doesn’t work for anybody” because it made it hard for the long-term sick to find work while pushing up costs for taxpayers.

McGovern said that it was “bleak” that rising numbers of young people were being signed off sick with problems such as mental health conditions. She said that the welfare system needed to change so that disabled people were helped to find work rather than being left “on the scrap heap”.

It was “obvious”, she noted, that the current system was not financially sustainable, with the cost of sickness benefits rising to £65 billion this year and projected to hit £100 billion by the end of the decade. McGovern said that the government was doing “a lot of thinking” about how to reform the welfare system, as she acknowledged that ministers had “further choices to make” as they aim to set out plans next year.

There are currently 3.3 million people claiming incapacity benefits because they are deemed too ill to work, up a million since Covid, with the figure projected to hit 4.1 million by the end of the parliament. Last week ministers set out a back-to-work plan aiming to improve help for people seeking jobs, while acknowledging that they needed to look at the welfare system.

• Young people face losing benefits if they don’t take up training

Experts have said that one reason why the numbers are rising is that those on incapacity benefits can get about £5,000 a year more than jobseekers, and with fewer conditions. Acknowledging the problem for the first time, McGovern told the Lords Economic Affairs Committee that there was “clearly a problem with the situation we’re in now with social security benefits and the changes over the past decade or so that have meant more likelihood” of people ending up sick in the long-term.

“There’s the headline rate issue and there’s also some process issues,” she said.

“The current system doesn’t work, it doesn’t work for anybody … Universal credit was supposed to be designed as a system that would strongly incentivise work and it’s turned out not to do that.”

Shaun Butcher, deputy director of disability analysis at the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), said that it was unclear how much the gap in payment levels had worsened the problem but stressed that “those incentives are quite powerful” for people claiming benefits.

Blaming repeated Conservative crackdowns on jobseekers’ benefits for increasing the pay and conditions gap with the long-term sick, McGovern said that they had ended up “making the situation worse”.

“It’s definitely the case that the difference between being in the old JSA [Jobseeker’s Allowance] unemployed bit of the system, and the ill health, limited capacity for work-related activity group — the gap has widened,” she said.

“Various decisions that were taken throughout the period of the last decade or so have meant we’ve had this bifurcation effect between the two groups of people — out-of-work unwell, and the technically unemployed, actively seeking work — that have not helped the situation.”

She said that “a system with very hard and high walls between the two categories” did not work, adding: “We need to lower those barriers and to try to create a system that doesn’t place people in a binary category that it is unlikely that they will escape from.”

A green paper on welfare reform is due next year and McGovern promised that it would have “more to say” about how the system should change.

Reforms would aim to ensure that the long-term sick would not be scared of talking to jobcentres, as she argued that workers should have “much more access to occupational health support” at work to stop them going off sick.

She added: “I’d also like our work coaches from jobcentres to be able to be available in GPs’ offices and other places.” Saying it was “frustrating” for doctors to see patients whose real problems were about work, McGovern argued: “I would like them to be able to have a much closer relationship with us in DWP so we can try and help with the person’s broad sweep of problems.”

Wednesday, 27 November 2024

France is ahead of us (just) in the shaky fiscal position stakes:

 

France is playing with fire: an IMF bailout is no longer unthinkable

The collapse of the European project’s twin-anchor threatens dramatic consequences for the Continent

Emmanuel Macron
Emmanuel Macron’s ‘grand bargain’ with Berlin has failed Credit: Sarah Meyssonier/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

France is pushing its luck. The country has long enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” within the EU, able to borrow at rock-bottom German rates because it is deemed to be the twin-anchor of the European project.

Markets assume that the EU institutions will always coddle France whatever it does. We may soon find out whether this is a political narrative beyond its sell-by date.

There is a high likelihood that the Barnier government will collapse over the next month without passing a budget, unable to rein in runaway fiscal deficits that subvert the cohesion of monetary union.

“The governability of France is being called into question more than I have ever seen in my lifetime,” said Moritz Kraemer, ex-head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor’s.

The risk spread of 10-year French bonds over German Bunds spiked to 83 points on Tuesday, the highest since the eurozone bond crisis in 2012, though that metric does not fully capture the underlying gravity of events.

“The markets are waiting for a credible response but nobody can see where it is going to come from and there doesn’t seem to be any sense of urgency,” said Mr Kraemer, now chief economist at the German Landesbank LBBW.

“The French are playing with fire. Nobody in the markets still thinks that France is still part of the eurozone core. These spreads are a loud and clear warning,” he said.

His words have weight. S&P will decide on Friday whether to downgrade French debt yet further, after cutting the rating to AA- in May.

France is not at any imminent risk of a Greek default crisis, any more than Britain was at risk during the Truss mini-storm. But it is moving into the grey zone.

Mr Kraemer said the European Central Bank may ultimately be forced to intervene, invoking its untested “spread protection tool” (TPI) to buy French debt on the open market. “This could only go on for a couple of months; then there would have to be a proper adjustment,” he said.

This would require combined action by the International Monetary Fund and EU’s bail-out fund (ESM), together imposing the IMF’s usual medicine of spending cuts, tax rises, and harsh reform – if they could even handle a big beast with €3.3 trillion (£2.8 trillion) of public debt.

“It would be really brutal upfront austerity. The politics would be absolutely toxic because the ECB’s president is a former French finance minister,” he said.

Any use of the rescue machinery would require the assent of the German Bundestag, the Dutch Tweede Kamer and the northern creditor states. It is hard to imagine a more explosive political showdown.

The chances that the current French parliament would agree to draconian terms is close to zero. Two prickly animals hold the balance of power: the Left-wing Popular Front, and the Right-wing National Rally. Both defend France’s sacred – and unaffordable – welfare model.

The EU’s Mercosur trade treaty with Latin America adds another stick of political dynamite to the mix. If this treaty is imposed on France against its vehement protest – as seems likely – it risks an emotional rupture between the French people and the EU power structure.

For now there seems to be a widespread assumption that the ECB will suppress French bond yields as it did for Italy over the years. As cynics say, isn’t that why Emmanuel Macron pushed so hard to secure the top job for France’s Christine Lagarde?

But the institution can no longer mop up Club Med debt with no questions asked under the cover of quantitative easing. Post-Covid inflation has made this patently illegal. Any attempt to do so at scale would lead to a knife-fight within the governing council.

The French government understands the risks as the budget deficit hits 6.1pc of GDP this year and heads for structurally higher levels through the 2020s. “If we don’t act, the mechanical dynamic of public spending could push it to 7pc in 2025,” said Laurent Saint-Martin, the budget minister.

Premier Michel Barnier wants fiscal tightening of €60bn – in reality nearer €45bn – in mixed cuts and taxes, warning of a debt trap as interest service costs spiral higher. “Retrenchment is unavoidable, otherwise we are heading straight into a financial crisis,” he said last month.

Yet he cannot even count on the parties of his own loose coalition. His finance minister – a Macron loyalist – has publicly rebuked him for trying to raise taxes. Other Macronistes are acting as if they are in opposition. Party discipline has disintegrated.

The National Assembly has become a seething hotbed of self-promoting potentates pursuing their own power plays. It is an unedifying spectacle.

The government survives on the sufferance of National Rally’s Marine Le Pen, poetic justice after an election manipulated to deprive her 11m voters of genuine franchise.

As Henry Samuel reports from our Paris bureau, Le Pen is threatening to plant the “kiss of death” on the hapless coalition by joining the Left in a vote of no confidence triggered by attempts to force through the budget by decree power.

She has imposed a “red line” over the cost of living. The real reason is that 73pc of her party’s supporters want rid of Mr Barnier, one of the last great gentlemen of modern politics.

Michel Barnier, the French prime minister
Most of Marine Le Pen’s party want rid of Michel Barnier, the last great gentleman of French politics Credit: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

Professor Thomas Mayer, ex-chief economist at Deutsche Bank and author of Europe’s Unfinished Currency, said the political foundations of monetary union are coming apart. “The eurozone core is melting down. Markets can see that public finances are out of control and that France is moving into the Italian camp,” he said.

The German economic establishment is splitting into two camps as it watches the soap opera unfold. “The orthodox view is that Germany must stick to sound finances even if it becomes the sole anchor of the euro. At least we will still have a halfway respectable currency,” he said.

“The second view you are hearing more and more is that if others don’t bother, why should we? To hell with it, let’s just get rid of our debt-brake, and if the euro goes down the drain, that’s just too bad. The coalition imploded over this,” said Prof Mayer, now director of the Flossbach von Storch Research Institute.

“What you are seeing in the bond markets is that investors are beginning to doubt whether the German debt-brake will continue,” he said. Danish yields are now 20 points below German yields even though the krone is pegged to the euro. This is unprecedented.

Prof Mayer said the EU had turned into a bureaucratic leviathan that posed an increasing threat to Germany’s fundamental interests.

“Our government is going to have to confront the European Commission head on. It is imposing more and more directives on everything. It is impinging on personal freedoms, on production, on supply chains. It’s simply horrific,” he said.

“I don’t know how long Scandinavians will go along with it, or the Netherlands: they can all see the writing on the wall,” he said.

One thing is absolutely clear: President Macron’s “grand bargain” with Berlin has failed. He came to power in 2017 pledging to restore fiscal probity and make France fit for the euro. This would supposedly unlock German assent for a “Hamiltonian” leap forward: joint debt issuance and a muscular EU treasury with borrowing powers.

“It is dead in the water. There is no realistic constellation of political parties in Germany that would agree to it,” said Mr Kraemer.

France will probably muddle through and avert a full-blown financial crisis for now. But the larger damage is done.

There will be no fiscal union after all. Without that the euro is a chronically unstable construction on borrowed time.