Quote of the day

“I find economics increasingly satisfactory, and I think I am rather good at it.”– John Maynard Keynes

Wednesday, 29 January 2025

A critical view of our apprenticeship system

 harryph

Is there any problem that can’t be made worse by the big state slamming down its clunking fist? In the 2015 Budget, George Osborne, then the Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced that we were to have an apprenticeship levy – a new tax on businesses to fund apprenticeship schemes which was implemented in 2017.

Osborne declared that while ‘many firms do a brilliant job training their workforces; there are too many large companies who leave the training to others’. The temptation to meddle being irresistible, he had decided to take this ‘bold step we need to take if Britain is going to raise its game’.

It has proved an expensive, bureaucratic failure. The cost is nearly £4 billion a year – firms pay the money out and then seek to reclaim it by spending on training in a way that ticks the officialdom’s boxes. The Treasury is rewarded for complexity by being able to keep the money left over when firms give up and don’t claim it all.

Naturally, the new Government seeks to continue with an interventionist approach – though it has changed the name to the ‘growth and skills levy’ and promises more ‘flexibility’ by not requiring the spending to go on apprenticeships.

The Times reports that the scheme is ‘increasingly used by employers to train experienced and well-paid executives, whom they would have paid for anyway, rather than taking on and training new employees at the start of their career’. Senior executives are sent on courses such as MBAs.

Neil Carberry, Chief Executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, said:

It has become a system of investing in the skills of experienced workers over the age of 25 rather than what it should be, which is investing in the skill of young people who will be the experienced workers of tomorrow.

According to the Department of Education’s own figures, we had 276,000 ‘apprenticeship achievements’ in 2017. In comes the levy and what happens? For 2023, the latest year for which data is available, it had fallen to 178,220. Billions spent to make a bad situation worse.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development has crunched some other numbers and in a report last year concluded that ‘the Apprenticeship Levy has so far failed to achieve its aims. Employer investment in training has continued to fall and the overall number of apprenticeships has fallen, especially for young people’. There is ‘widespread rebadging of training for existing staff as apprenticeships’. The ‘dead weight’ cost ‘of the government subsidising training that would have occurred regardless’ and the distortion where ‘displacement occurs when employers reduce spending on other types of workplace training’.

Government funding and control also reduce the incentive and ability of firms to ensure the schemes are good quality – one reason apprentices often drop out before completing the course.

The report adds:

In 2022/23 there were a total of around 337,000 apprenticeship starts, considerably below the pre-Apprenticeship Levy figures of 509,000 in 2015/16.

The fall among the young was particularly dire.

The notion that the state knows better than business what sort of training and apprenticeship schemes should be offered has been discredited. This blundering arrogance will not be improved simply by switching from a Conservative to a Labour government bossing businessmen around. It will just be done with an even more sanctimonious tone.

That is not to deny that the skills shortage is a dire problem. Consider housing. It is often pointed out that immigration adds to the pressure. It is often retorted that we rely on immigrants to provide the skilled labour needed to build new homes.

But the state is the cause of, not the solution for such woes. We should start by ending the cruel scam of subsidising young people to go off to university to undertake worthless ‘Mickey Mouse’ courses. Despite the subsidy, they still graduate saddled with debt and discover that a degree in the sociology of deviance or the sociology of leisure is of limited value in the jobs market.

If those precious years were not wasted, they could be finding their way in work of practical value.

Another great displacement activity is welfare. It should not be possible to go straight from school to signing on. Nobody should be entitled to any welfare benefits below the age of 20. This would give a chance for the work ethic to be inculcated. There would be some friction between a workshy teenager who has left school – demanding pocket money as well as continued free board and lodging – and his parents. That friction would be welcome. 

To help ensure the availability of work, the minimum wage should be abolished for teenagers. The employer and employee should be left to work out for themselves who is exploiting whom and to mix and match accordingly. Suppose an 18-year-old was offered £50 a week to be a plumber’s mate? Gradually, they would be trusted to go off on their own to deal with the simpler jobs. I suspect the apprenticeship is more relevant than getting a plumbing diploma. In a couple of years, they could be earning £50 an hour rather than £50 a week.

We should also increase choice by lowering the school leaving age back down to 16. Those who are not academically-minded already have the option of vocational qualifications – often at a sixth-form college or further education college. But why not allow them to go and start a proper job if they so wish?

The young are invariably full of ambition, enterprise and enthusiasm for a career. But when they try to pursue it, they often get ground down by the system. The biggest favour the government could do for them is to stop trying to help and just get out of the way.

Sunday, 26 January 2025

Let's have a look at fossil fuels and renewables:

 

There is no green energy revolution: pretending otherwise makes us poor

Fossil fuels are still what sets the world to work – and that is not changing any time soon

Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband
Credit: Zara Farrar / No 10 Downing Street

The myth that the green energy transition is inevitable and will make cheap electricity for everyone is one of the most dangerous self-delusions of the global elite.

Despite two decades of policy attempts, fossil fuels in 2022 still meet 81 per cent of global energy needs, down from 81.2 per cent in 2000.

On the most optimistic trend, fossil fuels will still supply two-thirds of all energy in 2100.

Yet, Western governments that have most enthusiastically pursued these expensive policies have received plaudits from multilateral organisations, climate activists and the media, who all mistake spending money with achieving results.

After decades of nearly unrestrained green efforts, electricity costs in the UK, Europe and progressive US states like California have soared.

The United Kingdom is paying a heavy price for leading the world on the climate agenda: its inflation-adjusted electricity price, weighted across households and industry, has tripled from 2003 to 2023, mostly because of climate policies.

It need not have been so: the US electricity price has remained almost unchanged over the same period.

The total annual UK electricity bill is now £90 billion, or £59 billion more than if prices in real terms had stayed unchanged since 2003. That is equivalent to wasting 2.1 per cent of GDP each year. This unnecessary increase is so costly that it is twice the entire cost of UK primary education.

Had prices stayed at 2003 levels, an average family of four would be spending £1,882 on electricity – which includes indirect industry costs. Instead, it now pays £5,425 per year.

There is a strong, clear correlation between more solar and wind, and much higher average energy prices.

Indeed, no country in the entire world has combined significant solar and wind energy with low electricity costs. Data from the International Energy Agency shows the average electricity cost in a country with little or no solar and wind power is about 10p per kWh. For every 10 percentage points of additional solar and wind, the cost increases by more than 4p.

The unsurprising result is that the UK and Europe are struggling to compete. European businesses pay triple US electricity costs, and nearly two-thirds of European companies say energy prices are a major impediment to investment. More than 30 million Europeans are energy poor.

We are failing to transition away from fossil fuels because of green energy intermittency and unreliability. They require almost one-to-one backup power systems to ensure grid stability, and that typically comes from fossil fuel-based generation. Taxpayers end up paying for two power systems.

It’s logical to ask why we don’t solve this problem with batteries. To make an impact, batteries would need to supply energy not only through the night when there is no sun, but in winter when there is higher usage, less sun and long periods of low wind.

Currently, the UK’s batteries would power less than 13 minutes of its consumption. A Royal Society study found that to meet all electricity needs with solar and wind, storage would need to be at least 10,000 times bigger.

With batteries, this would cost £15 trillion, or about five times the current UK GDP. Factoring in the need to replace batteries every 15 years, the cost would be one-third of UK GDP each and every year.

Fossil fuels remain indispensable for fertilizers, steel, cement and plastics and for energy-intensive sectors like aviation, shipping and heavy industry. Global energy consumption is increasing by 2 to 3 per cent each year, with innovations such as fracking driving down the cost and increasing the availability of fossil fuels.

Under President Trump, the US – already the world’s leading oil producer – is set to abandon costly green policies and expand fossil fuel production further, while the growing economies of the Global South will continue to increase demand.

At the same time, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, electric transportation and large-scale data centres require even more energy.

Policymakers need to invest more in research and development to overcome the major flaws in today’s green energy. It is time to reckon with the reality that green energy is not yet ready in the UK or elsewhere.

The delusion that we are on the verge of a green revolution is both manifestly untrue and incredibly costly, as it perpetuates misguided policies that ignore the need for real innovation and undermine global competitiveness.


Bjorn Lomborg is President of the Copenhagen Consensus and a Visiting Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution

A little bit of red tape - good for supply side essays

 

Britain’s £25bn banking problem piling pressure on Rachel Reeves

Santander will have left the Chancellor even keener to rip up the City’s rulebook

city buildings with a white picket fence around them

When Santander boss Ana Botin met Rachel Reeves at the annual Davos jamboree last week, the atmosphere may have been frostier than the ski slopes outside.

Just hours earlier, Botin had been forced to defend the bank’s commitment to Britain after reports that the Spanish lender was preparing to exit after 20 years because of over-regulation.

The gripe touched on widespread concerns in the City that Britain’s rulebook is stifling the economy.

Under pressure to demonstrate a plan for growth, the Chancellor has in recent days promised a light-touch approach to regulation. That means scrapping and simplifying rules across a host of sectors to free businesspeople’s hands. She has hauled in watchdogs to explain how they will boost growth and forced out the chairman of the Competition and Markets Authority, who was deemed not sufficiently on board with the new agenda.

For banks, the first pieces of red tape that should be in line for the axe are ringfencing rules. The measure requires the largest banks to separate retail services like current accounts and mortgages from activities such as investment banking and trading. It leads to duplicated efforts, tied up capital and is a drag on business, the industry says.

“We need to start from a position of no more red tape on banks and then pull back from there. But on things like ringfencing ... Why on earth are we still ringfencing?” says one senior British banker.

Ringfencing rules were introduced as part of the post-financial crisis reforms to end the “too big to fail” banking culture. Banks with over £25bn of deposits must separate high street customer cash from riskier parts of the bank to ensure that ordinary customers are protected if anything goes wrong elsewhere.

More than £1 trillion of customer deposits were ringfenced when the rules came in and the regime cost the banks £3bn to implement. 

Santander has about £75bn of customer deposits, dragging it into the ringfencing regime.

While the reforms may sound sensible, they are extremely frustrating for banks. The pots of money attached to high street banking are stranded, making it difficult for British lenders to deliver the same kind of investor returns as Wall Street rivals.

Santander, for example, has dozens of different branches around the world but cannot syphon off the UK cash to other parts of its business to fuel growth.

Santander boss Ana Botin and Rachel Reeves
Santander boss Ana Botin met Rachel Reeves at the World Economic Forum to discuss the Government’s plans to boost growth Credit: HM Treasury/LinkedIn

Seen through this lens, British banking operations start to look expendable.

“Given the ringfencing, you don’t have substantive synergy capture by having an overseas business in the UK, which means strategically why do you need it? Why is it part of the group?” asks John Cronin, of Seapoint Insights.

Benjamin Toms, at RBC Capital Markets, says the threat of Santander’s possible UK exit was “well-timed” given Reeves’s openness to rolling back the rulebook.

“Santander has traditionally been relatively political in the way that they have negotiated markets,” he says.

“I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we’ve seen these stories when clearly the Government is looking to soften their stance towards banks and stimulate growth in the economy.”

Many in the industry privately complain about ringfencing rules, which are estimated to cost the banking sector £1.5bn annually. UK Finance, which represents the banking sector, says a “significant majority” of its members believe the rules should be scrapped.

The regime is particularly galling to many British banks because they do not apply equally. Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are exempt from the rules.

Goldman, through its Marcus brand, keeps UK deposits specifically beneath the ringfence threshold to make sure they are not subject to the rules. So, too, does JP Morgan’s UK franchise Chase.

International banks who come to the UK get access to a huge pool of cheap money from savers if they stay beneath the cap. It can then be used to fund other parts of their business, even overseas operations, precisely because the pool avoids the ringfencing rules.

“Barclays can’t take a deposit and put it to work in their investment bank because they have to ringfence them,” Toms says. “On the other hand, Chase can build £25bn of deposits and send them back to the US to put in its investment bank without having to ring[fence] them.”

Jeremy Hunt’s Edinburgh Reforms, launched in December 2022 when he was chancellor, included a pledge to reform the ringfencing rules after a review by Sir Keith Skeoch, the former Standard Life chief executive.

Proposals included lifting the cap to £35bn, which would benefit the likes of Marcus and Chase.

While the Treasury was careful to stress they would “not unlearn the lessons of the past”, officials called it a “sensible evolution” of the ringfencing regime. However, bankers want reforms to go much further.

Even if Reeves were sympathetic, she would likely face resistance from the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), which enforces the rules.

In 2020, Sam Woods, the PRA chief executive, told The Telegraph he would defend ringfencing “to my last drop of blood”. He said: “I very strongly believe in those things being separated.”

Woods, who was a key architect of the regime as a young Bank of England official, has softened his tone since then, saying more recently he wanted to make the system work “more efficiently”.

PRA chief Sam Woods
PRA chief Sam Woods helped draw up ringfencing rules in the wake of the financial crisis Credit: Paul Grover for the Telegraph

However, a letter to the Chancellor last week explaining how the PRA could boost growth tellingly left the issue of ringfencing noticeably absent.

If Santander were to sell its UK bank, then NatWest, Barclays and HSBC have been touted as a possible buyer for the €10.5bn to €15bn (£8.9bn to £12.7bn) business.

HSBC, in particular, is seen as a likely suitor because it is seeking to bolster its presence in the UK and exit in Mexico.

Coventry Building Society has also been floated as a prospective buyer. The mutual acquired the Co-operative last year and many expect its acquisitive streak to continue after rival Nationwide did its own big deal by buying Virgin Money last year.

For now, Botin has said the Madrid-based bank will stay in the UK as it is a “core market”.

The Advance Union, which represents more than 5,000 Santander UK staff, has sought assurances from senior management who told them there were “no plans to exit the UK market”, general secretary Jim Leonard said.

However, Botin has pointedly refused to rule out a sale in future.

Botin’s strike on the ski slopes has put the ringfencing regime back in the spotlight – and top of Reeves’s agenda.