Bank of England report current position):

Released May 13th 2015 anything in italics is my comment


EMPLOYMENT:


There were 31.10 million people in work, 202,000 more than for October to December 2014 and 564,000 more than for a year earlier.

The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) was 73.5%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971.

Employment increased by 0.7% on the previous quarter.


[Total hours worked per week were 998.6 million for January to March 2015. This was: • 2.4 million (0.2%) more than for October to December 2014 • 20.2 million (2.1%) more than for a year earlier • 84.2 million (9.2%) more than 5 years previously.]

Comparing January to March 2015 with a year earlier, pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 1.9% including bonuses and by 2.2% excluding bonuses.


INFLATION:


The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was unchanged in the year to March 2015, that is, a 12-month rate of 0.0%, the same rate as in the year to February 2015.


OUTPUT:


Output is now 4.0% above the level at the start of the economic downturn in Q1 2008. [NB output per capita is DOWN...]


Four-quarter hourly productivity growth remained weak


The MPC’s best collective judgement is that productivity growth will pick up gradually over the forecast.


The services sector as has grown by 8.5% over this period.


CURRENCY:


In effective terms, sterling is around 2% higher than in February and 16% higher than its trough in March 2013.


[For those of you interested, if we use the old rule of thumb for this area which the Bank of England has apparently forgotten the rise in the value of the Pound since March 2013 is equivalent to a 3.5% increase in Bank Rate making its equivalent value 4% now as opposed to 0.5%.]


CONCLUSION ON THE PATH OF INTEREST RATES:


under the assumptions that: Bank Rate rises gradually to 1.4% by 2018 Q2, in line with the  path implied by market interest rates;


i.e., ceteris paribus, rates MAY hit 1.4% by June 2018...