Quote of the day

“I find economics increasingly satisfactory, and I think I am rather good at it.”– John Maynard Keynes

Tuesday 16 June 2015

Only time for a few important things before Thursday: Deflation...

It's over; that's it, it is no more, it is a "dead parrot". As Mark Carney said, "enjoy it while it lasts"...


In fact, there is a serious point to carry into your exam, that will help you demonstrate good knowledge beyond the syllabus: Despite the putative 0.1% fall last month ("-0.1%! First time since 1960!"), several things meant the BoE Governor was hardly likely to break into a sweat.
1) AD is not falling
2) House prices are rising (9.6% in March Y/Y)
3) Any number of other things showing prices rising.


In short, don't go into the exam with the -0.1% figure thinking it will have a major impact on policy - it won't. For sure, inflationary and deflationary pressures exist, and will continue to duke it out (until inflation wins - anyone want to take me on with a bet [Brad, you owe me £10...] - but the key point about this deflationary "episode" is that serious economists do not see it as an issue at all. It is not a "sustained bout of falling prices over a period of time". Please make that distinction if you get an opportunity in the exam.


To read more about this follow this link:


https://fullfact.org/factcheck/economy/deflation_Britain_first_time_1960-45187

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