And I'm not sure about all the conclusions herein, but some of it is very interesting:
The US dollar is losing its influence. Many countries are ready to embrace a multi-currency global future.
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In recent years, global politics have undergone considerable shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with Russia’s war in Ukraine, has intensified the polarization of nations across the globe. Once seen by Western countries as a difficult yet possible partner, Russia’s standing drastically changed after Putin’s decision to invade a sovereign nation—first Georgia in 2008, then the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, and finally the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which continues to this day. The last invasion marked the boldest attempt to alter European borders since World War II, cementing Russia, alongside China, as a principal and immediate geopolitical adversary to the West.
This growing polarization, worsened by mismanaged Western sanctions and delayed aid to Ukraine, has prolonged the conflict. Meanwhile, BRICS and potential members, many of whom are authoritarian regimes, have been strengthening alliances between each other. While Egypt and the UAE are US allies, most BRICS members see Western nations as adversaries.
What is going on global market:
Currently, the US dollar makes up 58 percent of global currency reserves and 54 percent of export invoicing. Together, the US and EU dominate over 80 percent of global reserves. Since the war in Ukraine, however, the renminbi has overtaken the dollar as Russia’s most traded currency, and Russia now holds renminbi and gold as its primary reserve assets. In the past two years, China and Russia have expanded currency swaps to boost trade, and Russia increasingly relies on CIPS (China’s Cross-Border Interbank System) after being cut off from SWIFT.
US dollar and Euro Share of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves, %. 2016-2024
Since the 1990s, China’s economic expansion has been nothing short of extraordinary. By 2001, it had overtaken Japan, which had long held the position of the second-largest economy. China’s growth didn’t stop there; in 2017, it surpassed the United States when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), a significant milestone that underscored its rapid rise on the global stage. Although the US economy is still 54 percent larger when measured in nominal terms, evaluating economies through the lens of PPP also provides a good comparison of their size and standard of living for the population. This method adjusts for differences in price levels between countries, offering a more realistic perspective on what the two economies can produce and afford. Consequently, while the US maintains its nominal lead, China’s position in terms of PPP highlights its significant global influence and the shifting balance of economic power.
China – new global power?
(Source: World Bank)
It is true that nominal GDP reflects a country’s ability to buy goods internationally and we should also look at those GDP statistics. But it also shows that if the current trend continues, the US will lose the first place to China in the near future.
Recent sanctions from The United States and western allies highlighted the vital role of gold as the most secure and stable asset a country can maintain in its reserves. When Western nations imposed sanctions on Russia, freezing assets like foreign currency reserves and restricting access to global financial systems, gold emerged as the one resource they couldn’t confiscate or block Russia from using. This emphasized gold’s unique position as a safeguard against sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty, offering protection in times of increased global tension.
As a result, many authoritarian regimes, particularly within BRICS nations, have been boosting their gold reserves as part of a broader effort to shield their economies from potential external threats. This trend reflects the growing understanding that, in an era where economic sanctions are frequently employed as geopolitical leverage, holding large gold reserves ensures a degree of economic independence. Consequently, these countries are focusing on gold as a way to reduce their reliance on the US dollar-based financial system and secure their financial resilience against future sanctions or global market upheavals.
Does the future lie in gold?
(Source: Atlantic Council, World Gold Council)
The shift toward gold and de-dollarization appears more plausible if we exclude countries that lack independent monetary policies and are interested in joining BRICS. Currently, only 35 percent of countries have an autonomous monetary policy. Most other nations have currencies that are either fully pegged to, or managed in relation to, major global currencies like the US dollar, euro, or Swiss franc. This indicates that many countries might be inclined to peg their currency to the renminbi, gold, or even adopt a new BRICS single currency if they aim to join BRICS and reduce their economic dependence on Western nations. Currency pegging though, has several advantages. It gives a country an exchange rate stability, that reduces currency fluctuation and is good for international trade and investment. Second, inflation is much lower, because developed countries and strong currency in general have much less inflation than developing countries who have independent monetary policy. The third benefit of the currency peg is investor confidence, because it excludes uncertainty factors in economy and business.
Currency Regimes for BRICS members and countries that expressed interest or officially applied for joining the Alliance.
BRICS and its potential size:
So, who are the countries who expressed their interest or officially applied to join BRICS? There are 43 countries from the Middle East, Asia, Africa and South America
To see this chart properly click on the article heading (in blue) to go to the website
Countries that expressed interest or officially applied for joining into BRICS
| # | Expressed Interest | Region | # | Officially Applied | Region |
| 1 | Angola | Africa | 25 | Algeria | Africa |
| 2 | Cameroon | Africa | 26 | Senegal | Africa |
| 3 | Central African Republic | Africa | 27 | Zimbabwe | Africa |
| 4 | Congo | Africa | 28 | Bolivia | Americas |
| 5 | DR Congo | Africa | 29 | Cuba | Americas |
| 6 | Ghana | Africa | 30 | Venezuela | Americas |
| 7 | Libya | Africa | 31 | Azerbaijan | Asia |
| 8 | Nigeria | Africa | 32 | Bahrain | Asia |
| 9 | South Sudan | Africa | 33 | Bangladesh | Asia |
| 10 | Sudan | Africa | 34 | Kazakhstan | Asia |
| 11 | Tunisia | Africa | 35 | Kuwait | Asia |
| 12 | Uganda | Africa | 36 | Malaysia | Asia |
| 13 | Colombia | Americas | 37 | Pakistan | Asia |
| 14 | El Salvador | Americas | 38 | Palestine | Asia |
| 15 | Nicaragua | Americas | 39 | Saudi Arabia | Asia |
| 16 | Peru | Americas | 40 | Turkey | Asia |
| 17 | Afghanistan | Asia | 41 | Thailand | Asia |
| 18 | Indonesia | Asia | 42 | Yemen | Asia |
| 19 | Iraq | Asia | 43 | Belarus | Europe |
| 20 | Laos | Asia | |||
| 21 | Myanmar | Asia | |||
| 22 | Sri Lanka | Asia | |||
| 23 | Syria | Asia | |||
| 24 | Vietnam | Asia |
How large are the current and potential BRICS? If all the proposed nations were to join BRICS today, it would become the largest political and economic bloc globally. This expanded BRICS group would account for over 50 percent of global GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP, International $) and represent roughly 71 percent of the world’s population.
(Source: World Bank. (2024). World Bank Data)
What kind of future does the world have?
Are advanced democratic nations losing their global influence? Could this decline be attributed to years of accommodating authoritarian regimes, coupled with domestic welfare and monetary policies that have stifled wealth creation? Are demographic challenges, such as falling birth rates, aging populations, and growing migration issues, further exacerbating this shift? Is the world, as a result, moving toward a new bipolar dynamic — not between capitalism and socialism, but democracies and authoritarian governments or their semi-democratic allies. One we know for sure, is that US dollar is losing its influence, and this is aligned with US global political power also. The data indicate that while the US dollar faces challenges, countries not typically aligned with Western allies are actively contributing not only to de-dollarization but also to expanding their influence in the global economic and political arena. Will a multipolar future emerge soon?
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